{"id":5398,"date":"2021-01-01T09:46:38","date_gmt":"2021-01-01T09:46:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodvale.com\/?p=5398"},"modified":"2020-12-24T08:32:09","modified_gmt":"2020-12-24T08:32:09","slug":"blue-sky-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/blue-sky-thinking\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Sky Thinking"},"content":{"rendered":"

The most popular New Year\u2019s wish is that 2021 is nothing like 2020. Fergus Byrne<\/strong> has been hearing from some local businesses about how they see the next year unfolding<\/p>\n

Looking into a crystal ball at the beginning of a new year we often hear talk of \u2018million-dollar questions\u2019 about the future. This year, it\u2019s more likely to be \u2018billion-dollar questions\u2019 and it\u2019s also more likely to be about years rather than the next twelve months. What lies ahead for the world economy, the national economy\u2014and more important to most of us in this corner of the South West\u2014what lies ahead for local business and the economy of our wider local community is a popular question.
\nAlthough for some, the impact of Brexit will be somewhat hidden by the impact of coronavirus, the double hit on the UK is enormous\u2014especially when many businesses have never fully recovered from the 2008 economic crash. And while debate on the rights and wrongs of decisions made by government over the last few years and months will rage forever, this is where we are. So with hospitality and retail in the spotlight, we asked a few local businesses to tell us a bit about their hopes for the coming year.
\nUnsurprisingly, views are mixed. There\u2019s is no doubt that for many there is light at the end of the tunnel, it\u2019s more a question of how long that tunnel is\u2014and for some businesses it is likely to be longer than for others.
\nAlastair Warren, chairman of The Electric Pub Company, a recently launched hospitality business in Dorset, sets a positive tone but echoes a point that many have voiced in recent years. He warns that if we don\u2019t support local businesses we will lose them. Talking about the upsurge in online purchasing and the long term effect that that may have on his local town of Bridport he said: \u2018It\u2019s perfectly fine to buy things online, we\u2019re all human beings and all looking for a bargain at the end of the day. But if you do that at the expense of going into RLK Tools or into Cilla & Camilla or the Morrish & Banham Wine Shop or any of the other independent retailers in town, eventually those retailers won\u2019t be there.\u2019
\nAs the owner of the Electric Palace Cinema and a growing stable of pubs as well as a wine business, Alastair is aware of just how difficult trading has been in the last year for customer-facing businesses. \u2018The last year has been about survival\u2019 he says. He believes that in the main, government support for the sector has been good. Grants and furloughing have helped offset some of his company\u2019s losses, and post lockdown trading in pubs like the Pymore Inn outside Bridport has also helped. But social distancing makes it very difficult for most pubs to trade. And with limited inside space, he sees a \u2018difficult winter\u2019 ahead.
\nHowever, looking further ahead he believes valuable and useful lessons have been learned on both sides of the counter from the way the industry has adapted. \u2018We got an enormous amount of support\u2019 he says of the way people came out to the pubs that were able to open. \u2018And I think we learnt a lot.\u2019 He cites \u2018table service\u2019 regulations and food deliveries as bonuses for customers that he describes as \u2018much better in terms of the customer experience.\u2019
\nSo, whilst he hopes that by next summer we have \u2018something that looks more like normal\u2019 and that people will be able to walk up to the bar to order drinks, he thinks that levels of customer service will have improved. \u2018We will continue doing food deliveries in a post-lockdown world because people like it\u2019 he says. \u2018We were forced to do exclusively table service; we will continue to do table service in those venues which can justify it, like the Pymore Inn and one of the others, in a post-lockdown world.\u2019 Alastair wants to retain \u2018the good bits\u2019 as well as allow customers to \u2018do all the things you used to be able to do\u2014hopefully in a post-vaccine, normalised world.\u2019
\nHis business can be broken down into three categories: the cinema, the wine business and the pubs. All sides of the business were negatively impacted by the coronavirus lockdowns in different ways\u2014the cinema perhaps worse than others. \u2018I would say that cinemas and theatres are almost the sworn enemy of social distancing\u2019 he says. He explained that when you go to a cinema or a theatre you typically are sitting very close to the person next to you and generally entering in through a crowded foyer, as well as mixing with people while getting drinks at the interval. And of course live music or theatre, involves interaction between lots of people, with the exception perhaps of solo comedy shows and cinema.
\n\u2018So, by definition, it\u2019s very difficult to maintain social distancing\u2019 he says. \u2018That being said, we did reopen very briefly, to do the first part of BridLit prior to the current lockdown, and actually, it went incredibly well.\u2019 Although only able to facilitate about half the normal audience, he said the event was very well supported. \u2018People were incredibly understanding, in terms of how they entered and how they exited the building, how they pre-ordered their drinks, how they just operated responsibly. That has given us great encouragement.\u2019 Encouragement enough to consider running a limited programme of comedy which he says \u2018can be done because there\u2019s only one person on the stage and then a spread-out audience.\u2019 He hopes the same can happen with film, with the audience distanced.
\n\u2018What remains difficult, until such time as social distancing is removed, is live theatre and live music because you just can\u2019t make the numbers work. You need too many people in the building to make a commercially realistic enterprise. But with the optimistic view that the government will have rolled out a vaccination programme to the most vulnerable by the Spring, and then with a view that the weather will be improving and there will be a more comprehensive roll-out of vaccinations through the summer, we are hopeful that we will be back to normal audience numbers by the summer period\u2019.
\nAlthough that may feel like a long way from now, it shows a level of positivity that might give theatre goers hope.
\nAlastair is also investing in the Bridport Arts Centre building with plans for a restaurant, caf\u00e9 and wine bar next year. However, although his wine retail business is doing well and he expects it to grow he says \u2018I\u2019m actually pretty cautious on retail generally because there has been this marked shift towards online.\u2019 This is why he hopes people will make the effort to support their local independent shops and businesses. \u2018You\u2019ve got to be balanced about it\u2019 he says. \u2018I\u2019m not saying buy everything in Bridport but I\u2019m saying, spend money in town because otherwise the town that you love won\u2019t be there and I think that\u2019s really my message and that\u2019s what I try to do. Of course, there are some things which I source from suppliers outside of town but the vast majority of things that we buy for our businesses, we buy from the local area and we recognise we have to sometimes pay a little bit more for that. But do you know what, customers, in turn, are also prepared to pay a little bit more for that. It\u2019s a little bit everywhere, and doing a little bit to help everybody sustains these communities.\u2019
\nRichard Barker from Cilla and Camilla is also upbeat about the future of our local community. Although hit hard by the lockdown, he saw better trading than expected when the first closure ended. \u2018We had a wonderful summer\u2019 he said. \u2018We put that down to two things; people not going on summer holidays, so we saw an awful lot more visitors who were choosing to camp or come to nice hotels in Dorset rather than go to wherever they went otherwise. But we also saw a lot of people that might have gone and shopped in Exeter or Bournemouth or Bath or Bristol, who simply weren\u2019t going.\u2019
\nMany retailers and hospitality industry businesses had looked forward to November as a bonus trading period after losing the first months of the summer. But the second lockdown ended that hope. Kathryn Haskins from the Alexandra Hotel in Lyme Regis had seen November as a month when a little of the revenue from lost bookings might be clawed back. But it wasn\u2019t to be. \u2018We were looking forward to a really busy November and that all went by the board\u2019 she said. The overheads of running a building like the Alexandra when there is no income is a massive challenge. No easing of business rates can cover those costs. Unlike the retail option of increasing stock and selling more products, the hotel industry sells time. \u2018In a hotel, the rooms you\u2019ve lost are the rooms you\u2019ve lost, you can\u2019t make up for it\u2019 she says.
\nTier 2 rules have not helped the restaurant trade either. \u2018Not many people go out to eat with the people they live with\u2019 explained Kathryn. \u2018A lot of people go out to meet with friends and of course, you can\u2019t do that, so all our lunch booking trade is just gone. People come to eat with friends and catch up.\u2019 Alluding to the Government ruling she said, \u2018So they\u2019ve killed the business without killing it.\u2019 However, no matter how hard it may be, she is fiercely determined to support her local community. As soon as lockdown lifted she and her daughter were out visiting the local shops. \u2018We\u2019ve done a binge in Beaminster and a binge in Lyme\u2019 she says. \u2018We\u2019ve been waiting until the shops open to actually spend our money locally and I think a lot of people are doing that.\u2019
\nThat is one of the many positives that we hear from both businesses and customers, and not just locally. When the first lockdown hit, a national spirit of sympathetic support lifted the country. \u2018I think it is great how positive people have been locally and how supportive people have been locally\u2019 said Kathryn. \u2018The messages we have had from guests and from all over the country and even from abroad have been so lovely. I\u2019m hoping that that will continue into the time we reopen.\u2019
\nThat hope for a better year ahead, as 2021 moves into Spring, is echoed not only by those in business and their customers but also in the way some business owners are looking ahead. Mark Hix, whose restaurant chain went into administration in April 2020 as a result of the pandemic, has already reopened his original restaurant in Lyme Regis and has now taken on the lease at the Fox Inn in Corscombe. The pub had been bought by local residents Eva and the late Ray Harvey in 2012 to save it from being turned into housing and to preserve the hamlet\u2019s history. Family friends of Mark\u2019s for many years he explained, \u2018When they offered me the lease, I thought it could be a great opportunity, despite these uncertain times that we are in. It will be my first pub, so it\u2019s an exciting new project for me in the countryside where I\u2019ll be serving local meat and game along with some British pub classics, a contrast to the fish and seafood offering in Lyme.\u2019
\nMark has many plans to help build up local trade while at the same time promoting other local producers. In the New Year, he hopes to host a Farmer\u2019s market showcasing the best of the produce from the local area. \u2018With all the challenges that we are facing now, it\u2019s great to be able to focus on an exciting new project\u2019 he said. \u2018It\u2019s important to me that I keep The Fox as a traditional local pub with great food and drink. Since lockdown in Spring the pub has only been open three days a week, so I am looking forward to opening six days a week for the locals and visitors to the area to enjoy once more.\u2019
\nListening to the thoughts of some of those in business locally, it\u2019s no surprise that there are mixed feelings about the future of the local economy. Rebecca Hansford from the award-winning wine producer Furleigh Estate outside Salway Ash, saw an increase in trade as soon as the first lockdown ended. \u2018However, there is no escaping from the fact that we lost our Easter and early summer 2020 trading period\u2014a quarter of the year\u2019 she explained. She also had to cut prices to keep cash coming in to pay vineyard staff.
\nRebecca is also keenly aware of the impact that Brexit will have on her business. Most of her equipment comes from the EU which means servicing and parts will be a headache, as well as sourcing products such as corks and wirehoods which currently come from Portugal and France. Her company produces some of the best wine in England, but as she points out, cost increases are inevitable. \u2018The issue for us is whether the wine drinkers of the world will pay the increased price this will mean for our wine. Still, C\u2019est la vie!\u2019
\nAlastair Warren has said that he believes customers will be prepared to pay a little bit extra to support their local community, and with reports of a likely hike in the cost of imported foods after December 31st\u2014and this could apply to many products\u2014his ability to look at a national or global view may be helpful. As a former senior executive at Deutsche Bank as well as at Goldman Sachs, Alastair is in the unique position to be able to look at the bigger picture, as well as the area he grew up in. \u2018There will, I think inevitably be some economic cost to Brexit\u2019 he says. Although he hopes it will be mitigated to a large extent by whatever deal is agreed with Brussels. But he believes it will also be mitigated by an increase in taxes. Regardless of whatever government is in power, he says \u2018That\u2019s the only way you can pay for it.\u2019
\nBut he also believes that the government will need to make people feel better, so hopes to see them \u2018providing some kind of support or price guarantees for domestic producers which will be important around milk and other produce.\u2019 He also suggests that the housing market will need to be assisted with an extension of stamp duty relief and other measures \u2018because the housing market, in the south-east of England is still totally dead, pretty much, and that has a knock-on effect through the whole thing.\u2019 He expects interest rates to remain low for a very long time and hopes also to see increased levels of support for \u2018small and medium-sized businesses and the rural community.\u2019
\nUnlike many who share dire predictions of a post COVID world, Alastair doesn\u2019t expect a global meltdown. \u2018I\u2019m actually pretty optimistic about the global outlook\u2019 he says. \u2018I don\u2019t see global recession, I actually see continued stimulus coming from a wide variety of governments.\u2019 However, he believes much depends on the success of a vaccine. Speaking about the other businesses he runs he says \u2018we are seeing pretty encouraging signs, albeit critically dependent on the vaccine becoming a reality.\u2019
\nWith his \u201cinvestor confidence\u201d hat on, Alastair offers fascinating insights into what we may expect from the impact of Brexit and the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on our future, but his keen business eye is also heavily focused on his local town and the wider community around it. \u2018One of the great strengths of Bridport is the fact that there are very few chain stores in the town\u2019 he says. \u2018And we\u2019ve got a small number of quite large private landlords who have actively encouraged independent retail for many years, and my understanding is that through this difficult trading period, they\u2019ve actually been pretty flexible on rents and the like. So, I\u2019m actually quite optimistic for Bridport because I think the landlords have acted responsibly. But I\u2019m quite cautious about the market towns and larger retail centres where they don\u2019t have that same feel and understanding. Bridport is quite unique in that sense.\u2019
\nThe retail market may look worrying after the collapse of efforts to keep Arcadia and consequently Debenhams alive, but both Alastair Warren and Richard Barker see that as something that was going to happen despite the impact of COVID-19. Arcadia \u2018was over-levered and they hadn\u2019t moved with the times\u2019 says Alastair and \u2018It\u2019s not the pandemic that\u2019s caused the problem. There was a problem already and this has just exacerbated it and brought the issue forward\u2019 says Richard.
\nOn balance, we may be fortunate within the Marshwood Vale Magazine<\/em>\u2019s wider local community to be somewhat shielded and less prone to the devastation that this last year has wrought on some parts of the country. But there is little doubt that challenges remain. And the one thing that can help to temper these potential difficulties is ensuring that we spend as much of our money in nearby towns and villages as we can, and support locally-owned businesses as a priority.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The most popular New Year\u2019s wish is that 2021 is nothing like 2020. Fergus Byrne has been hearing from some local businesses about how they see the next year unfolding Looking into a crystal ball at the beginning of a new year we often hear talk of \u2018million-dollar questions\u2019 about the future. This year, it\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[13],"class_list":["post-5398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-features","tag-fergus-byrne"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5398"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5398\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5716,"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5398\/revisions\/5716"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.marshwoodlife.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}